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Ok, I admit it – I’m a stats nerd. I love nothing better than perusing the league tables in the back pages of the Sunday papers, so imagine my delight when Prozone offered me the chance to analyse their data from the 48 games of the Group Stages of the 2010 World Cup.
In a previous article in the New Scientist prior to the start of the World Cup (Haake and Choppin (2010), June 5, 35-37) and on this site (“Does altitude affect football tactics“) we suggested that altitude might have an effect on tactics, and in particular on shots from inside and outside the box. The only data available at that time however was for the 8 World Cup qualifying games for Mexico – including those at Mexico City at 2,200 m.
The results showed that the number of shots from outside the box increased with altitude at the expense of those from inside the box. The question is, has the same happened at the World Cup?
Come on FIFA – get a grip! A clear refereeing mistake like the one that denied the goal by Lampard (see the video if you missed it) must surely give the ruling body of international football the courage to implement video technology. Poor rules lead to poor decisions and in the case of goal line technology FIFA have simply got it wrong.
Figure 1. Lampard's goal against Germany clearly crosses the line.
It seems that everyone has something to say about the Jabulani. As the official ball for the 2010 World Cup, it has a lot to live up to, but seems to be attracting more criticism than jubilation.
It is now a World Cup tradition that the new ball should be roundly slated before the tournament begins but the bad press for the Jabulani failed to cease once the matches got underway. This was no doubt assisted by a slew of lacklustre performances as players and coaches looked for something to blame. But with the ball being described as ‘horrible‘, ‘supernatural’ and even ‘impossible‘, might there may be a little more at work than mere sour grapes?
.jpg "The Adidas Jabulani Ball")
- The Jabulani ball hasn’t been well received
On 4th December 2009 the new ball for the World Cup in South Africa was unveiled. The product of years of research and development, the ‘Jabulani‘ was the most highly engineered football the world had ever seen. Prior to the launch adidas had even gone to the extent of testing the ball in the Bundesliga, to highlight any potential problems. Yet despite extensive laboratory and field testing the ball has faced heavy criticism from a number of the world’s top players, such as Brazilian goalkeeper Julio Cesar and Italian striker Giampaolo Pazzini. England goalkeeper David James has even been quoted as describing the ball as ‘dreadful’ and ‘horrible’.
So, what has gone wrong, why is the most advanced football to date still facing criticsm from the top players?
It might be possible to partly answer to this question by delving into the history of World Cup footballs.
Last November, I proposed that for this Summer’s world Cup Altitude will be key, the thinner air in Johannesburg will cause the ball to behave significantly differently than at sea level. Less air resistance means faster shots and straighter trajectories. As part of a feature for the New Scientist (p35-37, June 5th 2010) we created a shot simulator to show how the same shot behaves at different altitudes. I also studied matches played by Mexico in the FIFA World Cup preliminary rounds leading to the current Finals, including home games at Mexico City at an altitude of 2,200 m.
- Fig 1. Maradona lifts the World Cup in Mexico’s Azteca Stadium in 1986.
A hundred years after the first football rules were set, the International Football Association Board (IFAB) met (on 6th March 2010) to discuss a number of footballing issues; these included the role of the 4th official and a “discussion on the latest developments concerning goal line technology”. FIFA dismissed the concept of goal line technology in 2008 following tests of video replay system and the Hawkeye motion analysis system. IFAB were seeking systems that gave decisions correctly 100% of the time and claimed that neither system apparently did this (a comment subsequently rebuffed by Hawkeye).
Double Handball (Image not from actual game)
We couldn’t let this one pass, even Radio 4′s Any Questions? had something to say. On Tuesday evening I gave a small lecture about the role of technology in Sport, I used Diego Maradonna’s famous Hand of God as a case study; should football utilise technology to assist referees? I hope the students marvelled at my astute sense of timing as the very next day news broke that Thierry Henry, captain of the French National Squad used his hand to help put his side through to the 2010 World Cup finals. Ireland, the team on the receiving end of this sleight of hand have been up in arms, both the Irish Parliament and Football Association called for the game to be played again. Henry’s official line is “I will be honest it was a handball but I’m not the referee” and unsurprisingly, the French Football Federation didn’t join Ireland’s call for a re-match.
Every World Cup draw is accompanied by a new ball, and media speculation is never far behind. The draw for FIFA 2010 on December 4th will focus attention on the ties in South Africa in next year, but I have some thoughts on what people are likely to be saying about the ball. Goalkeepers are invariably those asked for comment: Jens Lehman, Germany’s maverick goalkeeper said before FIFA 2006,
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