Well, it’s all over. And what an amazing day it was. It was exhausting trying to work out who was staying up and what the scenarios were. Here is what happened drawn as a polar time plot of the 5 teams that were in danger of relegation.
In our previous blogs we worked out that there were 81 different scenarios that could’ve taken place during the battle for the last two relegation places from the Premier League. Figure 3 uses a Monte Carlo simulation with probabilities based upon home and away scores for each team. It shows the % of scenarios leading to relegation for each team as the matches progressed. The first thing to notice from all the data is that Blackburn was never really in danger, always appearing at the top of the 5 teams in Figs 1 and 2 and having the lowest relegation chance in Fig 3.
Surprisingly, the likelihood of Wolves being relegated never really went above 20% * so it was always going to be a question of the other 3 teams. Blackpool’s chances of survival really ended around 80 minutes when they let in a 4th goal and both Wigan and Birmingham scored – up until that moment they still had a better chance of staying up than both these teams.
Time to sleep now, until next season.
* This was also an artifact of the simulation since at any time all scenarios were still possible and some become less and less likely towards the end of the game.